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'Scenarios Flagship': Developing seasonal and spatial foodweb models through novel statistical modelling – tools for constructing scenarios under future global change (EcoScenarios)

EUR-OCEANS organisation / funding


This 2-year project was selected as a EUR-OCEANS Flagship after the June 2009 EUR-OCEANS call. It addresses the EUR-OCEANS topic of the ”Elaboration of scenarios to better quantify the impacts of global change on marine ecosystems”. The project involves the following leading scientists and institutions:

  • Nils-Christian Stenseth and Marcos Llope, (CEES) Oslo University
  • Christian Möllmann, (IHF) University of Hamburg
  • Thorsten Blenckner, (BNI) Stockholm Resilience Center
  • Martin Edwards, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science.

Several other EUR-OCEANS Members are also involved in the project. Within the EcoScenarios programme, two workshops will be organized and the development of models by a post-doc scientist will be undertaken.

The focus of EcoScenarios is to “Model spatiotemporal, resolved foodweb dynamics in different ecosystems along biotic and abiotic gradients with a special emphasis on predicting ecosystem regime shifts ”. Based on the novel modelling approach EcoScenarios will evaluate the future development of these ecosystems under different scenarios of global change including
socio‐economic consequences.

The objectives of the project are, more specifically:

  • (1a) to develop seasonal and spatially food-web models for the Baltic Sea, Skagerrak/Kattegat and the North Sea
  • (1b) to use these to explain and project seasonal and spatial food-web dynamics under different scenarios of global change (i.e. overfishing, climate and eutroph.)
  • (2a) to link these models to simple economic models
  • (2b) to use these bio-economic models to adress policy questions and socio-ecological impacts

Please refer to the attached flagship presentation for details.

Timeline and progress report

  • The kick off meeting was held at the University of Oslo, 19 Nov. 2010.
  • A post-doc scientist will be hired early 2011.
  • A workshop will be held around Month 20 of the start of the project.
  • Two intermediate progress reports will be produced.


Outputs of the project will be documented here as they become available.

Foreseen key outputs:

  • 1-2 papers in high profile journals
  • results of workshop 2 will be published in a special issue in Climate Research (Editor: Nils-Christian Stenseth)



Activity leader(s): 
- Nils-Christian Stenseth (n.c.stenseth [at] and Marcos Llope (marcos.llope [at], CEES, Oslo University - Christian Möllmann, IHF, University of Hamburg - Thorsten Blenckner, BNI, Stockholm Resilience Center - tblen [at] - Martin Edwards, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science
Financial support: 
55 k€ from EUR-OCEANS to Flagship programme
Start date: 
End date: 

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