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EOC FWS - Building scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and associated fisheries

Workshop (Foresight)
EUR-OCEANS organisation / funding

This WS was selected for funding after the EOC 2012 call for proposal.

Scenarios are needed both for predicting the future trajectories of ecosystems and biodiversity according to different possible trends of driving factors and for assessing a priori the effectiveness of alternative governance strategies and management options in term of given societal objectives (such as sustainability, food security, equitable economic development, conservation of charismatic species, carbon retention, etc). The development of short to long term scenarios for marine ecosystems and fisheries is a key objective of the Eur-Oceans and CLIOTOP programs as well as the MACROES project which are co-funding this workshop.

Objectives of the workshop

In an attempt to contribute to the IPCC and IPBES endeavours, the workshop will focus on the development of alternative trans-disciplinary scientific scenarios of the evolution of the main drivers of global oceanic systems including (1) climate related changes, (2) major economic factors affecting tuna fisheries and markets, (3) alternative governance strategies and management options for open ocean pelagic resources, (4) alternative political, legal and institutional frameworks. These scenarios will be specifically designed to be subsequently used as inputs of the integrative socio-ecological models developed in the CLIOTOP modeling Working Group and MACROES project . Eventually, those models will allow simulating the future of oceanic ecosystems and fisheries along the various pathways identified during the proposed workshop, just as climate scientists use Regional Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to simulate various potential future climates.

Progress already made in defining broad-scope world-scale scenarios (e.g. GBO3 and GEO4 ) will serve as a framework for developing refined trans-disciplinary analysis using the same methodologies but focusing on oceanic systems. Different fisheries governance strategies including the globally coordinated use of standard fishery management instruments such as catch and effort limitations or marine protected areas (MPAs) as well as new tax/incentives systems and trade control means will be proposed and characterized. A particular emphasis will be given to the international legal framework and the development of potential new instruments for fisheries adaptation to global changes.


The workshop will be organized on the Dahlem Workshops model. In this perspective, the number of participants will be limited to a maximum of 30 key people to optimize the interaction and communication process. Participants will work in four interdisciplinary discussion groups (figure 1), each organized around one key question. A fifth group composed of experts experienced in scenario development and prospective analysis will supervise the plenary discussions and lead the synthesis work.

Discussion within and between groups will be stimulated and a particular attention will be given to the consistency of the various scenario components (for instance, the RCPs used for climate projections include global growth and oil price estimations by IAMs which are important factors which will be used by other groups, it will be important to ensure that the different groups use the same basis).

In order to maximize its efficiency, the participants will be expected to come prepared to the workshop. In this perspective, a 6 month preparatory phase will be coordinated by the conveners including reading and discussion of key background papers to analyze similar initiatives in other domains, identify issues for discussion and refine the objectives of the workshop. These papers will be circulated in advance and participants will be requested to submit comments and questions to initiate the discussion.

Sessions will be moderated, informal interaction as well as communication between groups will both be stimulated. By the end of the week, through a collective effort directed by a rapporteur, each group will be requested to submit a draft document synthesizing the work of the group. These will be discussed in a plenary session and will serve as a basis for a scientific paper(s) to be submitted in scientific journal(s).


The maximum targeted number of attendees is 30 persons.

Date and venue

Dates and venue indicated below are indicative (and might be modified in order to optimize attendance of potential participants).

Activity leader(s): 
Olivier MAURY (IRD), Laurent Bopp (CNRS), Haritz Arrizabalaga (AZTI), Liam Campling (Queen Mary, U. London)
Bonn (to be confirmed)
Start date: 
End date: 

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